JD Vance Leads CPAC Straw Poll for 2028 Republican Presidential Bid
For the second consecutive year, United States Vice President JD Vance has emerged as the frontrunner in the straw poll at the 2026 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), one of the largest annual gatherings of right-wing activists in the U.S.
The informal poll, often seen as a barometer for potential Republican presidential contenders, asked attendees who they would prefer as the party’s nominee for the 2028 election.
Vance Tops Poll, Rubio Gains Ground
Vance secured 53 percent of nearly 1,600 votes cast at the four-day conference. Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a former Florida senator and senior diplomat in the Trump administration, captured 35 percent, marking a significant rise from last year when he tied for fourth place.
Last year’s poll showed Vance with 61 percent support, followed by former Trump adviser Steve Bannon at 12 percent, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 7 percent. Rubio and Representative Elise Stefanik each received 3 percent.
CPAC Attendance Skews Right
The CPAC audience tends to lean strongly conservative, often more so than the broader Republican Party. Speakers this year included Senator Ted Cruz, Iranian opposition leader Reza Pahlavi, and Eduardo and Flavio Bolsonaro, sons of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro.
The straw poll results come as Republicans prepare for the November midterm elections, aiming to retain congressional majorities amid declining approval ratings for President Donald Trump, which recent surveys place at just 36 percent.
Vance: Isolationist MAGA Candidate
Vance, a military veteran and former single-term senator from Ohio, is seen as representing the isolationist wing of the MAGA base. While generally opposing foreign military engagements, he has supported Trump’s decision to join Israel in strikes on Iran.
Rubio: Experienced Diplomat, Hawkish Stance
Rubio offers a contrasting profile, with a long political career and a more interventionist approach in foreign policy, particularly regarding Cuba. He served as Florida’s senator from 2011 until his confirmation as secretary of state in 2025.
Both Vance and Rubio had previously criticized Trump. Vance once called Trump “unfit” for office, while Rubio described him as a “con artist” during the 2016 Republican primaries.
CPAC Polls Show Party Realignment
Historically, CPAC straw polls favored moderate or libertarian Republicans, such as Mitt Romney and Rand Paul. Since Trump’s rise in 2016, however, the polls have increasingly aligned with his politics.
Despite past predictions, straw polls do not always accurately forecast election outcomes. In 2016, a majority of CPAC participants backed Senator Ted Cruz, while Trump, who ultimately won the nomination and presidency, placed third in the poll.
JD Vance Likely to Run for Which Party, and Who Could Lose if He Enters?
JD Vance is expected to seek the Republican Party’s nomination for the 2028 presidential election. If he officially enters the race, he would essentially be vying for the spot currently aligned with Donald Trump’s base.
Since U.S. law prevents Trump from running for a third term, Vance’s candidacy positions him as a leading contender to succeed Trump, potentially sidelining other prominent Republican figures such as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis or former advisers like Steve Bannon, who might have hoped for the nomination.
Who is JD Vance? The Rising Star Leading the 2028 CPAC Straw Poll
James David Vance (born August 2, 1984) currently serves as the Vice President of the United States, having been elected alongside Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election. A former U.S. Senator from Ohio, Vance has rapidly ascended the ranks of the Republican Party to become a leading voice for the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement.
Early Life and Military Service
Born in Middletown, Ohio, Vance’s upbringing in the Rust Belt shaped much of his later political identity. After graduating from high school, he enlisted in the U.S. Marine Corps and served as a combat correspondent, including a deployment during the Iraq War. He later attended Ohio State University and Yale Law School, where he earned his Juris Doctor.
"Hillbilly Elegy" and National Recognition
Before entering politics, Vance gained national fame as an author. His 2016 memoir, Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and Culture in Crisis, became a New York Times bestseller. The book, which explored the struggles of the white working class in Appalachia, was widely cited by media outlets as a "key to understanding" the cultural shifts that led to the 2016 election results.
Political Career and Ideology
Vance’s political journey began in earnest when he won a competitive primary and general election for the U.S. Senate in Ohio in 2022.
Economic Populism: He is known for a "pro-worker" brand of conservatism, often criticizing corporate globalization and advocating for domestic manufacturing.
Foreign Policy: Vance has been a vocal proponent of "America First" foreign policy, frequently questioning the level of U.S. involvement in foreign conflicts and emphasizing border security as a top priority.
The 2028 Outlook: His dominant performance in the most recent CPAC Straw Poll solidifies his position as the "heir apparent" to the Republican base, appealing to both traditional conservatives and the populist wing of the party.
Personal Life
He is married to Usha Chilukuri Vance, a former litigator and clerk for Supreme Court Justices. They have three children. Vance is also a convert to Catholicism, a faith he often cites as a foundational influence on his views regarding family and social policy.
